CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68756bbfc6c08a56a6a0f831ac879fbe22c9b91ba24bcce262d95bd5a5eefc8a

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: fnaticof fnatic, Misa Esports
Resolved: Jul 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $15,462
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $16,509

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,462 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdbdd…a5debacked fnatic	59c	2,009$1,178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$830.63	7,925	50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L	+179.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked fnatic	49c	1,450$712 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$738.63	924	56.8%525 W · 399 L	+2.0wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Misa Esports	41c	789.26$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.36	2,622	47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L	-33.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed fnatic	71c	712.02$509 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.37	1,088	54.2%590 W · 498 L	+39.3wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked fnatic	67c	563.6$376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187.7	1,513	57.2%865 W · 648 L	+65.4wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Misa Esports	41c	508.53$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.2	630	38.6%243 W · 387 L	-26.4wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Misa Esports	50c	496.85$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	91	58.2%53 W · 38 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Misa Esports	44c	442.34$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.95	1,848	41.7%770 W · 1,078 L	-69.2wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Misa Esports	29c	400$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116	1,083	42.1%456 W · 627 L	-13.5wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Misa Esports	37c	396.78$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.17	2,508	41%1,029 W · 1,479 L	-115.5wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed fnatic	71c	371.25$263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.07	6,480	42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L	-79.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Misa Esports	35c	361$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.33	2,349	42.5%998 W · 1,351 L	-72.7wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Misa Esports	39c	276.02$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.15	1,407	38.9%547 W · 860 L	-41.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Misa Esports	24c	236.2$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.1	2,434	44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L	-64.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed fnatic	72c	221.95$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.88	421	54.6%230 W · 191 L	+13.7wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7126…bfcbbacked Misa Esports	46c	216.79$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.41	195	48.2%94 W · 101 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xccdc…dbe6backed Misa Esports	25c	198.93$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	367	49.3%181 W · 186 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb373…d97cbacked Misa Esports	53c	181.6$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.25	587	45.5%267 W · 320 L	-15.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Misa Esports	24c	179.17$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	309	39.2%121 W · 188 L	-4.6wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed fnatic	62c	172.63$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.6	1,676	51.1%857 W · 819 L	+21.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked Misa Esports	24c	166.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	220	37.3%82 W · 138 L	-7.5wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Misa Esports	53c	165.91$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.61	754	38.9%293 W · 461 L	-38.9wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x252f…a065backed Misa Esports	16c	156.88$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	78	34.6%27 W · 51 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bea…224dbacked fnatic	78c	154.13$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.13	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	65cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce5…309cbacked Misa Esports	50c	144$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	86	25.6%22 W · 64 L	-8.8wins	-0.10per pick	36cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked fnatic	62c	139.72$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.13	2,328	51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L	+92.3wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Misa Esports	28c	125$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	263	44.1%116 W · 147 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Misa Esports	36c	118.06$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.5	306	38.9%119 W · 187 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe07b…b7c9backed Misa Esports	59c	98.31$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	144	47.9%69 W · 75 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked fnatic	52c	96.21$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.93	4,933	37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L	-249.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Misa Esports	37c	93.64$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.67	3,202	45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L	-79.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-16%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed Misa Esports	70c	90$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	491	43%211 W · 280 L	-15.9wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed Misa Esports	16c	86.44$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	442	44.1%195 W · 247 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Misa Esports	50c	77.88$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.79	194	48.5%94 W · 100 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed fnatic	58c	73.88$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.03	418	53.6%224 W · 194 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed fnatic	57c	71.64$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.64	242	60.3%146 W · 96 L	+13.0wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked fnatic	62c	66$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.08	1,779	59.1%1,052 W · 727 L	+104.8wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked fnatic	58c	64.94$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.27	746	53.5%399 W · 347 L	+9.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked fnatic	51c	64.48$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.7	3,459	29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L	-279.9wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Misa Esports	24c	57$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.68	380	32.1%122 W · 258 L	-18.7wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked fnatic	62c	56.37$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.45	2,473	34.6%855 W · 1,618 L	-188.5wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xba1e…1e15backed Misa Esports	32c	55$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Misa Esports	54c	54.54$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.67	4,064	50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L	+69.5wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76bb…4548backed Misa Esports	48c	52.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	225	55.6%125 W · 100 L	-11.4wins	-0.05per pick	61cpaid	-11%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Misa Esports	34c	50.65$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.45	1,033	53.2%550 W · 483 L	+64.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed fnatic	77c	50$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	270	37.8%102 W · 168 L	-9.8wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed fnatic	59c	49.99$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.45	5,287	31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L	-383.3wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7415…b585backed fnatic	51c	49.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.02	48	45.8%22 W · 26 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked fnatic	76c	49$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.57	2,136	42.9%916 W · 1,220 L	-68.1wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-20%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed Misa Esports	49c	48.36$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.93	988	56.1%554 W · 434 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Misa Esports	31c	46.58$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.64	597	3%18 W · 579 L	-221.0wins	-0.37per pick	40cpaid	-90.7%equal weight	11-0.36 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed fnatic	55c	45.91$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.78	2,774	24.5%681 W · 2,093 L	-295.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed fnatic	58c	43$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.06	478	56.7%271 W · 207 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed fnatic	36c	42.62$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.38	771	46%355 W · 416 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5663…f2e5backed fnatic	58c	35.5$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.91	241	52.3%126 W · 115 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Misa Esports	55c	35$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.17	2,362	46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L	-53.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked fnatic	70c	34.56$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.35	2,604	52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L	+98.0wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed fnatic	69c	33.18$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.31	807	40.3%325 W · 482 L	-3.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed fnatic	58c	33$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.86	514	46.9%241 W · 273 L	-22.0wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Misa Esports	40c	32$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.82	1,630	43.2%704 W · 926 L	-32.9wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd45…a81dbacked Misa Esports	56c	28.76$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.03	271	50.6%137 W · 134 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb71f…043ebacked fnatic	61c	27.96$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.96	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed Misa Esports	46c	24.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	1,485	58%862 W · 623 L	+66.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked fnatic	43c	24.58$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.02	3,910	36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L	-197.6wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8084…f4a3backed Misa Esports	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	37	27%10 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1eb6…2ea0backed fnatic	61c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.88	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f23…441fbacked fnatic	59c	18.68$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.62	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked fnatic	62c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.84	1,315	51.1%672 W · 643 L	-99.5wins	-0.08per pick	59cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winnerthis page
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Misa Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group Bfnatic won
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Misa Esports - Map 2 WinnerMisa Esports won
Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5)Misa Esports won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event