Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Idaho Vandals vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6880d31fc68654e951c1a39c05753fb0e32314d0ce86fbd2ba0d9c48b7ee1208
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Notre Dame Fighting Irishof Idaho Vandals, Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Idaho Vandals | 13c | 7,744$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.66 | 105 | 11.4%12 W · 93 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Idaho Vandals | 14c | 6,074$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Idaho Vandals | 17c | 5,903$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Idaho Vandals | 13c | 2,808$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.04 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…0d05backed Idaho Vandals | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Idaho Vandals | 10c | 2,325$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.5 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Idaho Vandals | 14c | 2,100$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Idaho Vandals | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.96 | 323 | 37.2%120 W · 203 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Idaho Vandals | 13c | 1,304$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.52 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c06dbacked Idaho Vandals | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Idaho Vandals | 13c | 869.78$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.07 | 163 | 41.7%68 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Idaho Vandals | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…9462backed Idaho Vandals | 13c | 757$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e7…4dc1backed Idaho Vandals | 16c | 618.13$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5134…90f6backed Idaho Vandals | 16c | 617.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Idaho Vandals | 14c | 617.37$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Idaho Vandals | 14c | 609.06$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.17 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Idaho Vandals | 14c | 565.26$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.44 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Idaho Vandals | 12c | 562$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Idaho Vandals | 11c | 496.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 231 | 58.9%136 W · 95 L | +23.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…999fbacked Idaho Vandals | 17c | 476.47$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Idaho Vandals | 16c | 432$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fe…df34backed Idaho Vandals | 10c | 428.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…3527backed Idaho Vandals | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x211b…324dbacked Idaho Vandals | 14c | 318.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Idaho Vandals | 11c | 303.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…8c00backed Idaho Vandals | 10c | 230$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.24per pick | 30cpaid | -76%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab3…5fa4backed Idaho Vandals | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…3e6cbacked Idaho Vandals | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc526…bf92backed Idaho Vandals | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Idaho Vandals | 13c | 154$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Idaho Vandals | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Idaho Vandals | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Idaho Vandals | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 128 | 53.1%68 W · 60 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Idaho Vandals | 24c | 137.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…b2ddbacked Idaho Vandals | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 109 | 39.4%43 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Idaho Vandals | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 181 | 29.3%53 W · 128 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ea…e3e3backed Idaho Vandals | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Idaho Vandals | 12c | 99.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Idaho Vandals | 16c | 81.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Idaho Vandals | 13c | 79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Idaho Vandals | 20c | 71.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Idaho Vandals | 19c | 62.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9242…60babacked Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.