Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68a817f9868d682885f1393a88d91d495501518d3159f4796d1a61f5befa68be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 2c | 920$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed Yes | 76c | 286.84$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.7 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 235.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 33c | 209.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a02…a48dbacked No | 62c | 159.52$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 79c | 151.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 42c | 130.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 76c | 126.01$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 120.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 10c | 114$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122f…cd00backed Yes | 30c | 110.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 20c | 102.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 98.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6449…a054backed Yes | 28c | 95.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 24c | 93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745b…0b9abacked Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabd3…a0a2backed Yes | 52c | 72.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 18c | 71.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed No | 72c | 60.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b57…84ebbacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 62c | 51.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 49.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 59c | 46.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 30c | 39.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 79c | 31.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 62c | 30.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked No | 70c | 21.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.