Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b438b786c9fb56da82d71ca50cb35c500122b94c6ec913905460939d1c2b118
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00d4…0a1bbacked No | 0c | 40,900$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 2,922$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,901.65 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,738$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.78 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 1c | 1,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 2c | 1,441$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 2c | 781$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 3c | 761.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c13…c164backed Yes | 2c | 698.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.56 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +229.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 42c | 685.29$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.64 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed Yes | 30c | 608.47$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.02 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 51c | 582.94$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.94 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 12c | 444.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.03 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 5c | 394.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.75 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…f373backed Yes | 4c | 302.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +472.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 61c | 239.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.65 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 8c | 208.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.87 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 202$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 199.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.2 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 28c | 184.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 30c | 136.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.92 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked Yes | 9c | 119.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.03 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 37c | 114$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 37c | 102.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabd3…a0a2backed Yes | 41c | 95.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6449…a054backed Yes | 34c | 93.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…3d62backed Yes | 24c | 90.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.76 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…40e5backed Yes | 36c | 79.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed Yes | 24c | 72.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b57…84ebbacked Yes | 30c | 67.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked Yes | 24c | 63.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 50c | 52.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 53c | 47.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 42c | 44.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed No | 73c | 35.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 48c | 30.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 57c | 25.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 75c | 25.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 49c | 24.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.