CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68aa13bdbe00c9585efb65f252fad5f143f8d3b6c514c07fe284f29b3a2bf72d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Heroic, NIP
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked NIP | 56c | 20,000$11,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,199.99 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Heroic | 44c | 18,763$8,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,507.16 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed NIP | 57c | 4,398$2,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,494.69 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Heroic | 43c | 3,046$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,736.22 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Heroic | 43c | 2,852$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625.61 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed NIP | 57c | 2,632$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.24 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed Heroic | 42c | 1,867$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.79 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5553…9235backed NIP | 58c | 1,738$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Heroic | 73c | 1,534$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.81 | 124 | 65.3%81 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d2aebacked NIP | 35c | 1,393$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed NIP | 3c | 1,058$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8d…037abacked NIP | 31c | 1,005$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed NIP | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed Heroic | 44c | 785.3$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.77 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed NIP | 21c | 724.31$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.16 | 324 | 25.3%82 W · 242 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…a367backed Heroic | 47c | 720$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.6 | 283 | 44.2%125 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked NIP | 31c | 684.99$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.04 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Heroic | 45c | 595.56$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.56 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Heroic | 73c | 511$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.97 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Heroic | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6bbdbacked Heroic | 43c | 499.99$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5a…7f2dbacked Heroic | 67c | 360.48$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed NIP | 56c | 355.37$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.01 | 208 | 56.3%117 W · 91 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Heroic | 77c | 321.89$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.61 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Heroic | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Heroic | 44c | 267$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.52 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3cd3backed Heroic | 62c | 243.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 225 | 60.4%136 W · 89 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Heroic | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…59a5backed Heroic | 69c | 217.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed NIP | 56c | 165.63$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 216 | 39.8%86 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…901ebacked Heroic | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f2…da0ebacked Heroic | 58c | 128.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -7.4wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed NIP | 37c | 125.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbb…fc88backed NIP | 35c | 114$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…ba6dbacked Heroic | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…9abdbacked NIP | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked NIP | 52c | 104.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 980 | 52.4%514 W · 466 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Heroic | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…5b3cbacked NIP | 54c | 91.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed NIP | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415e…5c29backed NIP | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Heroic | 71c | 74.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…494fbacked NIP | 36c | 72.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…c644backed NIP | 28c | 70.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked NIP | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked NIP | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…122cbacked Heroic | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Heroic | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed NIP | 58c | 48.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e98…3e80backed Heroic | 79c | 41.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked NIP | 52c | 41.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…4bc8backed Heroic | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…01a9backed NIP | 59c | 17.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Heroic | 71c | 16.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.