Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68b5af73c7434702ef60379b98260261fafad89ec4d72bf22ad496995cbbda45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed07…886abacked No | 72c | 10,500$7,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,940 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 26c | 7,068$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837.67 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 6,889$5,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.42 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked No | 72c | 6,518$4,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,830.34 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 28c | 6,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 4,000$2,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No | 73c | 3,986$2,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.29 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 28c | 3,877$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.3 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e7…0365backed No | 73c | 1,641$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.07 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -56%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c38…de5abacked No | 74c | 999.97$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.99 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 27c | 744.73$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.63 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 72c | 731.43$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.21 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 79c | 575$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.28 | 94 | 76.6%72 W · 22 L | +16.8wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 72c | 544$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.32 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…b663backed No | 72c | 385.51$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.94 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed No | 74c | 377.02$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.02 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 279.34$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed No | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5528…c098backed Yes | 26c | 269.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked No | 72c | 166.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Yes | 32c | 140$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 131.59$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 30c | 116$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0a…d64bbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 25c | 85.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 70c | 82.25$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked No | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 32c | 74.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…b6abbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…d25abacked Yes | 33c | 60.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8a…4d5fbacked No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 31c | 49.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92ad…3f81backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…2f4abacked No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…ff1ebacked No | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949d…374cbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e0…e809backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…a9b1backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 75c | 16.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…4f81backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 76c | 14.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 77c | 13.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?this page
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-02-07?Yes won
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-02-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.