Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68c918c58526ac394ad7ba2f36d5f7772da442e0db1a639a06e8690fb8d4f3eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 36c | 392.1$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.4 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 325.53$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 36c | 281.59$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.1 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 33c | 209.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.74 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 66c | 183.98$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.64 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 177$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 21c | 172.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 171.6$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 65c | 168.12$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 45c | 160.22$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.12 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 136.63$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 126.72$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 124.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 124$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 35c | 115.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.74 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 70c | 114.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 103.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 34c | 103.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.16 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed No | 66c | 92.28$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 38c | 85.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 29c | 85.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 84.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 66c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 77.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 76.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 45c | 72.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 66c | 70.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 54.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 56c | 53.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 37c | 41.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 64c | 41.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 39c | 36.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 34c | 34.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 34.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 35c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 34c | 31.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 45c | 29.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 69c | 28.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 26.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 70c | 25.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 44c | 25.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 56c | 25.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 18.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 66c | 16.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.