South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Tigres de la UANL vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68e29c1fa5a7e85ba9bc059adc2699c93b02e2a3060383a99f95ad284c01eed3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 60c | 3,881$2,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,346.02 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 28c | 2,230$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605.66 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 65c | 1,097$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.59 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Yes | 71c | 618.34$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.21 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 68c | 611.06$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.09 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c7…4078backed No | 30c | 581.98$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 73c | 576$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.18 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 27c | 567.79$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.49 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 39c | 539$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.79 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 464.79$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.35 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 67c | 440.26$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.65 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 29c | 410.35$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.35 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…b752backed Yes | 49c | 398.04$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.04 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 32c | 254.72$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 29c | 230$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.6 | 250 | 21.6%54 W · 196 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Yes | 28c | 217.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.86 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…272bbacked Yes | 28c | 217.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.86 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed No | 72c | 174$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.28 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 41c | 168.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.19 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 71c | 163.38$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c40…7c34backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27e6…3363backed Yes | 78c | 136.76$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 56c | 127.46$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 71c | 125.06$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.79 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed No | 72c | 109$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Yes | 29c | 105.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed No | 48c | 101.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 70c | 99.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 68c | 73.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked No | 72c | 72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked No | 72c | 72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Yes | 75c | 68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Yes | 28c | 54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 62c | 50.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…893bbacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…5e33backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6790…c9e9backed Yes | 73c | 28.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…9908backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…b0cdbacked No | 73c | 15.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985e…6894backed No | 73c | 15.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tigres de la UANL vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-01-17?No won
- Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.