South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-01-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bd460d4b603cc426f645e3f8304fe7940b2e549f9bd2092221d8f13dda26223
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 26,106$7,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,496.91 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 11,866$8,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,448.05 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 72c | 6,890$4,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,918.35 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 71c | 4,755$3,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.23 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 72c | 3,816$2,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.52 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 2,832$2,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.79 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 29c | 2,050$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.5 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 71c | 1,051$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.03 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 28c | 834.1$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.96 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 30c | 818$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.98 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Yes | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Yes | 32c | 615.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 28c | 576$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.95 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 68c | 400.68$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.98 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 22c | 398.73$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 71c | 321.31$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.18 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c40…7c34backed Yes | 29c | 282.51$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9058…a2c2backed Yes | 33c | 260.61$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +65%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…17e3backed Yes | 29c | 193.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 72c | 188$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 73c | 182$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 124 | 43.5%54 W · 70 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 139.27$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 139.19$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 72c | 109$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed No | 72c | 96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 75c | 95.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…9908backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed No | 71c | 77.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…2391backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 73c | 74.19$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 19.5%23 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e2…7df5backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked No | 71c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…165fbacked No | 71c | 59.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…58f1backed Yes | 31c | 52.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 49.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 73c | 48.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…6c97backed Yes | 29c | 45.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked No | 71c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf81c…cceabacked No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed No | 71c | 38.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 33c | 33.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed No | 76c | 32.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 70c | 30.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 72c | 20.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed No | 72c | 17.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…8efdbacked No | 72c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked No | 72c | 14.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x756e…a832backed No | 72c | 14.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-01-17?this page
- Will Tigres de la UANL vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.