Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x692f74fd864ed4ab53fd026acf6b1f734f6e5c099578356deed1386f8d95fe5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes | 34c | 307.62$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.65 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 36c | 255.09$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.51 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…e50bbacked Yes | 46c | 215.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.69 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 29c | 212.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 45c | 211$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.44 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 204.26$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 38c | 186.72$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.7 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 64c | 168.18$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.39 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 155.8$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 146.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 129.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 51c | 123$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.43 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…b86fbacked No | 14c | 118.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 105$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 103.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 95.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 38c | 89.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 89.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 72c | 85.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 41c | 85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e9…5630backed Yes | 65c | 77.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 18c | 67.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed No | 59c | 66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 63.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 63.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 57c | 57.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 49c | 51.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 48.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 27c | 45.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 38c | 36.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 38c | 34.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a33…c81ebacked No | 59c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a9…75b0backed Yes | 44c | 33.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 63c | 31.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f7…93a4backed Yes | 46c | 28.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 61c | 28.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 25.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 60c | 24.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 50c | 23.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…d242backed Yes | 66c | 23.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb27…cc9dbacked Yes | 57c | 22.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 21.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3534…a1b3backed No | 61c | 21.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 50c | 20.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.