MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x693b65ffec911775be5381a4d65b23f5eedc8b0f24201f5d9ccb5ab3f33a378b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 36c | 5,507$2,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,499.09 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 63c | 4,362$2,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,748.03 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 41c | 4,272$1,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520.23 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 61c | 1,072$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 68c | 548.26$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.76 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 41c | 259.07$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.04 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 41c | 254.94$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.41 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 29c | 232.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.77 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b39…7fbcbacked Over | 43c | 224.6$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.02 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Over | 50c | 211.58$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.79 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 39c | 160.8$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.79 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 41c | 82.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…65a4backed Over | 42c | 55.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 41c | 55.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 41c | 55.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 41c | 55.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 56c | 29.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 191 | 57.6%110 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 78c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White SoxWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.