MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40f0ea6891c360c197a2b31c2ae1bc073d37dfaf8ecbd48cae00cbb6e8bc2144
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 21c | 1,762$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 1,010$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.16 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Chicago White Sox | 7c | 723$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Chicago White Sox | 17c | 530.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 77c | 508.57$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.41 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 428.72$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.2 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Chicago White Sox | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Chicago White Sox | 39c | 247.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Chicago White Sox | 31c | 246.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Chicago White Sox | 12c | 222.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Chicago White Sox | 12c | 217.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago White Sox | 10c | 205$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Chicago White Sox | 9c | 196.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Chicago White Sox | 39c | 185.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 165.18$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.42 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago White Sox | 39c | 159.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Chicago White Sox | 9c | 118.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Chicago White Sox | 16c | 112.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox | 22c | 95.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 91.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Chicago White Sox | 36c | 77.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked Chicago White Sox | 16c | 76.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…9d57backed Chicago White Sox | 16c | 76.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals | 75c | 58.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Washington Nationals | 78c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 191 | 57.6%110 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago White Sox | 41c | 49.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Chicago White Sox | 34c | 43.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 39.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 77c | 39.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 30.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Washington Nationals | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White SoxWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.