Mls · resolved market
Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x697a05b418a823f732a3b6c8931568a9f0a9e9a8ad4900cdc432d214f9aaaa65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Portland Timbersof Real Salt Lake, Portland Timbers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Portland Timbers | 48c | 656.99$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.78 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Real Salt Lake | 49c | 426.11$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.03 | 3,018 | 43.6%1,316 W · 1,702 L | -28.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Real Salt Lake | 49c | 356.27$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.97 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Portland Timbers | 51c | 307.06$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.46 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed Portland Timbers | 50c | 201.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Real Salt Lake | 26c | 157$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…c7e8backed Real Salt Lake | 28c | 153.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Real Salt Lake | 52c | 146$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…d51ebacked Portland Timbers | 49c | 144.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Real Salt Lake | 26c | 96.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1,306 | 51.2%669 W · 637 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Portland Timbers | 67c | 89.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked Real Salt Lake | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Portland Timbers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 258 | 52.3%135 W · 123 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Real Salt Lake | 55c | 32.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Real Salt Lake | 55c | 32.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Real Salt Lake | 55c | 32.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9402…e673backed Portland Timbers | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Real Salt Lake | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Portland Timbers | 63c | 16.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)this page
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.