Mls · resolved market
Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07189ac201a9ff3351798b91d00f8d79402df2c7cdecf7cdc34f0614fdd61cd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 49c | 6,163$3,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,143.01 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 49c | 4,938$2,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,419.81 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 4,834$2,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,468.57 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba8…cdb3backed Under | 50c | 4,560$2,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,295.41 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 52c | 4,346$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under | 51c | 3,097$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,517.29 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8228…b2fbbacked Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5d…191dbacked Over | 51c | 2,329$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46c4…1563backed Under | 51c | 1,843$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0a…8521backed Under | 45c | 1,504$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…1dfcbacked Over | 51c | 1,490$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.99 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +51%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 1,317$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.54 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6323…9feebacked Over | 49c | 1,239$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 38c | 999.99$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 58c | 964.77$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.84 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Over | 50c | 901.09$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.55 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Over | 51c | 873.2$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.01 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 47c | 857.43$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.11 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Over | 60c | 800$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 52c | 655.65$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.96 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 70c | 510.94$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.37 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 61c | 436$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.14 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 43c | 370.84$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.57 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 61c | 305.5$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.7 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 291$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.72 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 49c | 238.71$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.71 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 56c | 163.06$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 50c | 151$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 56c | 117.89$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 51c | 105.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4b…839fbacked Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 55c | 83.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…8cf8backed Over | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 46c | 66.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 56c | 65.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 44c | 63.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 62.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0356…5273backed Under | 49c | 61.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb3…78e9backed Under | 50c | 59.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.36per pick | 49cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 50c | 58.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 53c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 50c | 54.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 49c | 52.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 53c | 50.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…ac8ebacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0339…1394backed Over | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 45c | 44.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Over | 49c | 37.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…7b78backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 43c | 35.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e63…2d79backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…31ebbacked Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +147%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e71…7913backed Under | 50c | 29.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 58c | 29.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…00bebacked Under | 50c | 28.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 50c | 26.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Under | 50c | 22.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 67c | 20.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fe…bd7ebacked Over | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d7…f0e9backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5this page
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.