Mls · resolved market
Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b0ad365e5d4d78169fded18be2f87b5dfbfcda5129d82175126fa506a368cb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 72c | 3,795$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 27c | 1,384$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.2 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 28c | 1,343$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.22 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Under | 28c | 977.97$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 28c | 892$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.24 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 54c | 857.3$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.03 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 43c | 783.89$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.57 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 47c | 719.3$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.23 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 76c | 644$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.25 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…e3c2backed Under | 12c | 520$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +176.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 41c | 420.52$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.16 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 19c | 351.57$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.77 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0a…8521backed Under | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 44c | 252.81$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.43 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 59c | 233.5$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.91 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 28c | 186.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.51 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 36c | 144.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.04 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 28c | 136$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.42 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 30c | 105.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…1080backed Over | 54c | 95.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 66c | 89$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…daabbacked Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -38%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 54c | 63.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 79cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 22c | 59.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8720…ea73backed Over | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 60c | 45.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 55c | 43.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 78c | 36.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 35c | 33.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 71c | 25.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 61c | 20.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…a781backed Over | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5this page
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.