Mls · resolved market
Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93c9600ea696159bf75622070c31b09c8f6fdb14aeaba5d7af0e070377eca9c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Salt Lakeof Real Salt Lake, Portland Timbers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Portland Timbers | 54c | 21,007$11,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,341.73 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c4…1563backed Real Salt Lake | 46c | 6,174$2,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,333.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac5…cd3dbacked Real Salt Lake | 46c | 4,817$2,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,601.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Real Salt Lake | 46c | 4,565$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,465.22 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443b…e8bbbacked Real Salt Lake | 46c | 3,043$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,643.48 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Real Salt Lake | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.91 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Portland Timbers | 25c | 299.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Real Salt Lake | 77c | 284$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…c7e8backed Real Salt Lake | 46c | 277.09$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.63 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96f…0cd0backed Real Salt Lake | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Real Salt Lake | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…aba4backed Portland Timbers | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Portland Timbers | 55c | 170.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Real Salt Lake | 59c | 152.52$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Portland Timbers | 34c | 118$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Portland Timbers | 48c | 95.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Portland Timbers | 41c | 94.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Real Salt Lake | 59c | 91.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Portland Timbers | 55c | 77.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Portland Timbers | 41c | 76.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Real Salt Lake | 45c | 70.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Real Salt Lake | 47c | 57.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Portland Timbers | 54c | 55.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Portland Timbers | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Real Salt Lake | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Portland Timbers | 55c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Real Salt Lake | 46c | 36.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked Real Salt Lake | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Real Salt Lake | 45c | 33.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Real Salt Lake | 60c | 31.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a0…daf1backed Portland Timbers | 54c | 27.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Real Salt Lake | 46c | 27.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Portland Timbers | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Portland Timbers | 55c | 20.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…1a0dbacked Portland Timbers | 58c | 19.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Real Salt Lake | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)this page
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.