Mls · resolved market
Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x693cad526bc3f2b2b56eb8b643bb1cc4f25e8ac0ec2413cf3856c6965a96770a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 52c | 6,385$3,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,308.03 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 42c | 5,203$2,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,185.46 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 48c | 3,012$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.37 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 65c | 1,203$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.93 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Over | 54c | 1,136$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.29 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…23e4backed Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 48c | 999.96$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.98 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 65c | 768.66$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.2 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 39c | 546.19$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.68 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 48c | 539.22$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.39 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 48c | 445.8$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.06 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 41c | 352$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 65c | 326.06$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.96 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 39c | 299.67$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.97 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 61c | 261.07$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 37c | 223.42$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 63c | 202.51$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.41 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 21c | 179$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 71c | 112.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 32c | 106.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 71c | 104.14$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 32c | 85.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 42c | 79.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Over | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2af…3880backed Over | 52c | 70.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 29c | 70.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 29c | 63.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 49c | 47.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 42c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…8cf6backed Over | 62c | 38.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd96…11ebbacked Under | 74c | 30.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 76cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Under | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 48c | 21.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 90 | 70%63 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.