Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x699bf303a60d032e677c0a44f78b889e25c3f3902509a191e9f0bcc6e62b50ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 6c | 217.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 186.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 147.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 137.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed Yes | 22c | 132.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 109.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 77c | 102.04$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 69c | 99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 98.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 97.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 89.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 31c | 72.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 71c | 69.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 53.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 76c | 52.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 68c | 46.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 32c | 45.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac9…885cbacked Yes | 34c | 45.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 73c | 45.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc2…e1d3backed No | 69c | 41.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 73c | 40.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 69c | 36.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…8652backed No | 75c | 33.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb496…2657backed No | 68c | 27.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 70c | 26.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 26.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 69c | 23.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 72c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 18.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ed…9374backed No | 68c | 18.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 77c | 15.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe205…7b9abacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 94°F or higher on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.