Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Victoria Mboko
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69a47b822ff7640cc46fb032eac29f370ac4a036bc70b680f61ceb9035a84854
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Mboko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $247,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $288,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $247,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Mboko | 13c | 23,910$3,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,203.67 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Mboko | 13c | 15,345$1,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,922.26 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Mboko | 17c | 12,500$2,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,125 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Mboko | 16c | 12,500$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.99 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Mboko | 17c | 10,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Mboko | 14c | 8,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mboko | 4c | 7,002$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.8 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Mboko | 1c | 6,024$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Mboko | 4c | 5,883$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.88 | 191 | 34%65 W · 126 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6295…6abebacked Mboko | 9c | 5,675$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Mboko | 16c | 5,550$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.01 | 192 | 41.1%79 W · 113 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mboko | 14c | 3,029$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.01 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Mboko | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 168 | 25%42 W · 126 L | -14.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Mboko | 2c | 2,466$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Mboko | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Mboko | 12c | 1,953$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.55 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7434…2ff4backed Mboko | 18c | 1,676$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.47 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…a27ebacked Mboko | 18c | 1,516$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.68 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Mboko | 15c | 1,400$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Mboko | 15c | 1,347$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Mboko | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094d…59f3backed Mboko | 3c | 844.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Mboko | 14c | 790.09$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.81 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Mboko | 15c | 749.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Mboko | 16c | 731.25$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Mboko | 16c | 727$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Mboko | 7c | 700$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Mboko | 15c | 665.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 36.6%53 W · 92 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c0…8ea1backed Mboko | 18c | 568.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Mboko | 17c | 518.08$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 249 | 31.3%78 W · 171 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd0…0f74backed Mboko | 4c | 503.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…c122backed Mboko | 18c | 475.86$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.66 | 460 | 30.4%140 W · 320 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ad…02b0backed Mboko | 17c | 450$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be6…05b1backed Mboko | 19c | 426.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked Mboko | 9c | 393.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…01cbbacked Mboko | 16c | 350$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Mboko | 17c | 341.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Mboko | 5c | 340$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Mboko | 8c | 315$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Mboko | 15c | 307.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Mboko | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Mboko | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Mboko | 15c | 196.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Mboko | 16c | 183.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Mboko | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 307 | 50.5%155 W · 152 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…ffc2backed Mboko | 7c | 141.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Mboko | 15c | 139.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 182 | 41.8%76 W · 106 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Mboko | 17c | 133$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 313 | 32.3%101 W · 212 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…126cbacked Mboko | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Mboko | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 990 | 56%554 W · 436 L | +32.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23c…2c63backed Mboko | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Mboko | 17c | 117$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 262 | 44.7%117 W · 145 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Mboko | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb0…1527backed Mboko | 12c | 90.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Mboko | 17c | 88.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6074…7099backed Mboko | 17c | 68.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Mboko | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Victoria Mbokothis page
- Sabalenka vs. Mboko: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Mboko: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs MbokoSabalenka won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Mboko (+1.5)Sabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.