Venezuela · resolved market
U.S. operation to capture Maduro in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69ac865d7824f22808d29deec2ed5090eaeeb27094e6936970c4b4c5660a87d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x858d…1047backed Yes | 1c | 11,102$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 16cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…a162backed Yes | 5c | 9,820$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…333dbacked Yes | 3c | 8,990$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.46 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…6127backed Yes | 6c | 8,172$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 1c | 5,681$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.23per pick | 25cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…9e19backed Yes | 2c | 3,821$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31f…c016backed Yes | 4c | 3,443$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95c…bdc0backed Yes | 11c | 2,759$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…e0afbacked Yes | 6c | 2,570$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,375$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 4c | 2,264$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 2,121$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…d3bebacked Yes | 12c | 1,872$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,653$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | -50%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…5696backed Yes | 2c | 1,586$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d51…370dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,556$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…78f7backed Yes | 7c | 1,471$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 1c | 1,371$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…8466backed Yes | 10c | 1,271$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 989.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 955.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 2c | 902.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 878.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 847.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…3dbabacked Yes | 11c | 840$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…cd63backed Yes | 1c | 800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…d714backed Yes | 7c | 687.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 612.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 63 | 3.2%2 W · 61 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9788…381dbacked Yes | 2c | 561.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 3c | 506.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe884…314fbacked Yes | 4c | 364.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b30…84ccbacked Yes | 8c | 297.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9d…373ebacked Yes | 9c | 209.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 14c | 142.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c6…0985backed Yes | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9138backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc16c…7b1bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c3…4672backed Yes | 13c | 83.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.