Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69e142efa35eb75af51dc4a43cfabc81059ba135f0f0310779f76228cbbc38a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 46c | 366.86$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.88 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 12c | 294.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 22c | 158.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 147.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 31c | 116.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 79c | 116.07$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 111.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 97.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 93.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 38c | 91.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 73c | 79.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 76.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 43c | 73.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 71.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1195…e17fbacked No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 28c | 68.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1b…6399backed Yes | 56c | 68.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 37c | 64.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 57.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 79c | 52.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…6b3fbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 46.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked No | 60c | 44.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 43.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 30c | 40.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 63c | 39.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 26c | 38.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 70c | 35.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…e087backed Yes | 43c | 33.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 31.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 29.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c1…125ebacked No | 61c | 28.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 27.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed No | 73c | 27.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 60c | 25.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 25.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed No | 57c | 20.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x259f…3294backed No | 74c | 19.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 55c | 18.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa46…4a23backed No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 66c | 18.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 17.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…f976backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 74c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.