MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69f6ae88f19d103e5474c7f2594bc74f2c908b9a7886050fcc847744346a65ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over | 45c | 3,333$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.33 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 2,872$1,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.81 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 48c | 900$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb79…47a9backed Over | 17c | 571.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 17cpaid | +198.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Under | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…301cbacked Over | 69c | 464$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.88 | 88 | 62.5%55 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 57c | 455.67$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.68 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 55c | 319.89$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 17c | 281.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5282…82fcbacked Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 196.02$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa81…44a9backed Under | 48c | 183.79$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 179$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004c…ab0cbacked Under | 71c | 113.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Over | 13c | 96.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.58 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 61c | 82.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 47c | 80.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 40c | 65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5724…b563backed Under | 56c | 53.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…2b21backed Under | 48c | 49.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 35c | 44.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 56c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 56c | 21.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Under | 69c | 17.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 129 | 24.8%32 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles AngelsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 13.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.