Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69fa92992e2065c3f78bec1e597478a4aa6f4c935657fa1a45b3074fa01d16a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf568…62adbacked Yes | 0c | 4,587$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 36c | 845.74$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.74 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 532.68$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 521.13$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 56c | 444.44$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.44 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 74c | 295.61$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.92 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 31c | 254.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.64 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…4cfcbacked Yes | 5c | 242.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed No | 64c | 229.09$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.12 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 56c | 222.78$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.28 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked No | 49c | 194.63$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.76 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 12c | 194.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 23c | 150.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…652abacked Yes | 79c | 123.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.93 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08d6…a14cbacked Yes | 48c | 118.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 37c | 116.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…75fabacked Yes | 25c | 105.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 77c | 103.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 57c | 100.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…fad1backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 16c | 87.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 25c | 70.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 64c | 57.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 36c | 56.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 33c | 50.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 35c | 48.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 25c | 48.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed No | 32c | 46.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 55c | 44.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 43.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 55c | 42.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…5ec5backed No | 46c | 40.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…7455backed Yes | 37c | 38.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 36c | 37.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 40c | 36.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 36.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…70e1backed No | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 36c | 34.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 39c | 31.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 64c | 30.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 37c | 28.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 67c | 28.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…d7a7backed No | 64c | 26.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked No | 61c | 24.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 23.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 62c | 22.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa565…615abacked No | 64c | 22.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 58c | 21.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 60c | 20.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 80c | 20.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed Yes | 80c | 19.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3959backed No | 60c | 19.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 60c | 19.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 71c | 17.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked No | 76c | 15.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.