Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaef164459161839af08167f058688118580733cc38499153b2ab4e013fa8313b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 7c | 845.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 530.77$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 448.17$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 10c | 334.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 296.94$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.12 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 16c | 237.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 68c | 206.73$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 8c | 173.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 6c | 173.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 7c | 162.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 64c | 149.15$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 7c | 142.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 13c | 138.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 9c | 137.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…75fabacked Yes | 21c | 120.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 118.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 59c | 98.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 82.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 27c | 75.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 63c | 57.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 37c | 53.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 32c | 45.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 43c | 43.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 39.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed Yes | 44c | 36.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 34.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd0…9f9abacked Yes | 35c | 33.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…652abacked Yes | 34c | 29.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 68c | 29.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 49c | 23.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on April 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.