Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96aded5c94499198a77b94fbb6b7ac261e50d4d175f231d0ca5861cc49d378e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 546.81$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 541.87$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 52c | 484.11$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 325.11$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.55 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 41c | 271.87$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.39 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 77c | 262.64$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 15c | 230.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 39c | 211.37$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.82 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 35c | 166.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.08 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 79c | 155.93$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 52c | 146.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 27c | 140.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.95 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 130.54$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 70c | 102.06$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 74c | 97.39$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 93.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…2d87backed Yes | 78c | 80.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 79.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…6d81backed Yes | 72c | 78.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9588…45b9backed No | 68c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 68cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 76c | 66.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 28c | 63.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248d…3512backed Yes | 29c | 61.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 80c | 61.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa448…f55dbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 27c | 57.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 56.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 26c | 53.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 37c | 50.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7224…1b96backed Yes | 75c | 47.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 33c | 46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 45.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 45.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 29c | 42.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 40.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes | 51c | 40.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 37.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 51c | 37.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 36.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…295abacked No | 68c | 34.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 78c | 31.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd639…f2d1backed No | 53c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc99e…74abbacked No | 74c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…87b0backed No | 73c | 30.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…5ec5backed Yes | 65c | 29.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…652abacked Yes | 54c | 29.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 47c | 28.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked Yes | 76c | 28.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 72c | 27.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 67c | 26.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 73c | 26.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 62c | 26.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 74c | 24.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 24.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…63f0backed Yes | 43c | 24.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 70c | 23.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 73c | 22.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 75c | 22.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 57c | 21.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 20.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d6…62a5backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 71c | 20.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed Yes | 73c | 20.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 68c | 20.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 56c | 20.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 19.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c7…ea4ebacked Yes | 75c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…6779backed No | 70c | 19.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 74c | 18.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 74c | 18.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 80c | 18.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 72c | 17.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked Yes | 79c | 16.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 16.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 73c | 15.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…977cbacked No | 70c | 15.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 14.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 76c | 14.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.