Music · resolved market
Will "American Girls - Harry Styles" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a000b224d5f37ded10cae979c463ad828a4b0497a168765475472c6eefc0205
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x578a…8cf0backed Yes | 18c | 2,068$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,696.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 60c | 1,957$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.23 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 62c | 857$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed No | 38c | 857$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 23c | 392.93$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…e5c4backed Yes | 44c | 209.52$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 17c | 199.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd384…081bbacked No | 63c | 137$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…e861backed No | 43c | 115.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 60c | 105.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed No | 61c | 103.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 24c | 60.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 37c | 51.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d4…d272backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 64c | 43.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked Yes | 71c | 43.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 40.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed No | 31c | 36.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 49c | 30.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…446dbacked Yes | 36c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab5…900bbacked No | 55c | 22.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "American Girls - Harry Styles" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?this page
- Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Risk It All - Bruno Mars" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.