Music · resolved market
Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fd2577c3ff4439a45fe5361710ab099c10b41edefdd544954f4dbfacef75f83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,285 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Yes | 61c | 2,400$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.99 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 69c | 756.58$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.65 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 24c | 346.8$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.68 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…8261backed Yes | 18c | 325.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed No | 50c | 272.22$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.11 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…e5c4backed Yes | 52c | 221.29$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked No | 27c | 200$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4001…5010backed Yes | 7c | 169.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed Yes | 29c | 165.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…03e0backed No | 16c | 148.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 76c | 137.37$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.92 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 30c | 136.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.82 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 21c | 131.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 33c | 109.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.29 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 18c | 109.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 22cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked No | 37c | 95.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 86.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 84.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 32c | 76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 77c | 69.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 55c | 59.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 22c | 57.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 50c | 50.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e06…f72bbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 39.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 29c | 35.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc01a…54ddbacked Yes | 41c | 35.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…bca7backed Yes | 79c | 35.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…446dbacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf451…86f9backed No | 72c | 27.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…4242backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…4fc0backed Yes | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37dd…da36backed Yes | 49c | 20.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…3435backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?this page
- Will "American Girls - Harry Styles" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?Yes won
- Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Risk It All - Bruno Mars" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.