Music · resolved market
Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42b668ad7895bc6eb14a781938db6fd345e1f0aa8778c053984d364742def6de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,354 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0140…8766backed Yes | 35c | 768$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 13c | 251.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 6c | 201.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d1…4638backed Yes | 16c | 198.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3722…1f0abacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 23c | 113.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 22cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…8261backed Yes | 21c | 113.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 13c | 112.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…783fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 28cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 13c | 99.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 74.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked Yes | 15c | 66.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…78e8backed Yes | 28c | 54.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e1…7a8ebacked Yes | 35c | 42.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc01a…54ddbacked Yes | 43c | 36.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 64c | 33.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?this page
- Will "American Girls - Harry Styles" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?Yes won
- Will "Risk It All - Bruno Mars" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.