Champions League · resolved market
Vinicius Junior: Anytime Goalscorer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a0c281b853e17b0fb5a1045d313d41dc9d92ec64a479962e9fc611906f81264
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 63c | 1,395$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.28 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af7…2381backed Yes | 37c | 808.1$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.71 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e34…12c1backed Yes | 37c | 399.86$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.21 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 61c | 340.22$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.26 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 67c | 306.57$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.18 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff1…6718backed Yes | 37c | 260.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cc…9144backed Yes | 40c | 241.17$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb987…14ccbacked No | 71c | 229.41$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 63c | 158$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77c…ad9bbacked No | 70c | 154.52$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…e195backed Yes | 37c | 130.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…8a93backed Yes | 37c | 130.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154a…86b0backed Yes | 37c | 128.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked No | 69c | 113.59$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6325…cfaabacked No | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 65c | 99.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 65c | 96.57$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…d678backed Yes | 35c | 91.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…2133backed Yes | 37c | 83.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 64c | 69.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed No | 73c | 67.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe976…35abbacked No | 68c | 57.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x033a…586dbacked Yes | 34c | 56.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8510…e41ebacked Yes | 35c | 55.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Yes | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed No | 66c | 49.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477e…23b3backed No | 65c | 39.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…c4eebacked Yes | 36c | 37.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd458…b521backed No | 67c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 64c | 28.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 62c | 27.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 66c | 22.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 62c | 22.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 71c | 21.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 61c | 18.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vinicius Junior: Anytime Goalscorerthis page
- Harry Kane: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Jude Bellingham: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Kylian Mbappe: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Luis Diaz: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Michael Olise: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.