Champions League · resolved market
Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab7666ec00fdfc0304b673f37f3cee92c332de171fc795f6d3497b413b68a475
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a74…312fbacked No | 49c | 3,437$1,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,670.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Yes | 51c | 2,179$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.71 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Yes | 50c | 1,465$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.66 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4af7…2381backed Yes | 53c | 1,195$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.52 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 53c | 999.95$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.98 | 120 | 36.7%44 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…bb57backed No | 53c | 915.99$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Yes | 50c | 767.75$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.19 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked No | 46c | 678.49$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.68 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd6…f45abacked Yes | 53c | 367.62$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 48c | 337.5$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.4 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9107…46d6backed Yes | 47c | 309$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.77 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92fb…09d0backed Yes | 53c | 304.38$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.06 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 44c | 303.85$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.51 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 49c | 227.02$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.7 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Yes | 52c | 199.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked No | 50c | 193.97$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed No | 52c | 187.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e34…12c1backed Yes | 56c | 172.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.32 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cc…9144backed Yes | 54c | 140.25$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 46c | 123.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 46c | 110.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…4968backed Yes | 47c | 103$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb987…14ccbacked No | 53c | 101.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…c4eebacked Yes | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe976…35abbacked No | 52c | 93.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed No | 54c | 90.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Yes | 54c | 90.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 50c | 90.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked No | 53c | 73.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…f8adbacked Yes | 55c | 63.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6121…c283backed Yes | 53c | 58.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…c425backed Yes | 51c | 57.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…8bbcbacked No | 54c | 54.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 47c | 54.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…0c71backed No | 48c | 53.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…77ddbacked No | 54c | 52.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed No | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 51c | 49.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf342…a5e9backed Yes | 49c | 49.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 47c | 49.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 142 | 20.4%29 W · 113 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…3ec8backed Yes | 53c | 48.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47d0…0b0fbacked No | 50c | 48.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 46c | 48.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4521…8cb7backed Yes | 51c | 46.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279a…ffc2backed Yes | 54c | 44.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…abe0backed Yes | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8510…e41ebacked Yes | 55c | 41.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477e…23b3backed No | 47c | 39.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0a…1584backed Yes | 54c | 39.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb420…3d77backed Yes | 54c | 33.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f65…0cf3backed No | 55c | 33.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…4947backed Yes | 54c | 32.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5636…3021backed Yes | 51c | 32.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f2…f86fbacked No | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170e…d9bebacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…8a93backed Yes | 55c | 28.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfd…4540backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 44c | 27.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27f9…9d9bbacked Yes | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 41cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…2eaabacked Yes | 53c | 26.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2c…3fb4backed Yes | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13b5…2c2cbacked Yes | 56c | 20.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba97…716bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2c…31f4backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…2278backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorerthis page
- Harry Kane: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Jude Bellingham: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Luis Diaz: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Michael Olise: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Vinicius Junior: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.