Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a1769d4672f8cd908af3f39355e7db0c61dbd363e0194b2c6390fe278fbdfd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tiafoeof Nakashima, Tiafoe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Tiafoe | 65c | 5,607$3,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,942.79 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Nakashima | 32c | 4,390$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424.74 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e60…3badbacked Nakashima | 36c | 3,050$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.5 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc144…c809backed Nakashima | 31c | 1,637$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tiafoe | 69c | 1,015$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.08 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nakashima | 28c | 978.9$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.09 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Tiafoe | 71c | 916.65$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.23 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…6bc3backed Tiafoe | 72c | 632.18$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.01 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Tiafoe | 66c | 473.42$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.96 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Nakashima | 28c | 317.44$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.62 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Tiafoe | 67c | 168$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Tiafoe | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 394 | 51.8%204 W · 190 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Tiafoe | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Tiafoe | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Tiafoe | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Tiafoe | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…c00fbacked Tiafoe | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474e…b0fdbacked Nakashima | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Tiafoe | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Tiafoe | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Tiafoe | 67c | 30.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35e…94a0backed Tiafoe | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…b109backed Tiafoe | 69c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…df87backed Tiafoe | 68c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 102 | 66.7%68 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Tiafoe | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Frances TiafoeFrances Tiafoe won
- Nakashima vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Nakashima vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs TiafoeTiafoe won
- Set 2 Winner: Nakashima vs TiafoeTiafoe won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.