Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Tiafoe
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88dabc3455dfabcd393e17e71bfc105ef9ee2a10bc4e1a625e89e75122f4e0bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tiafoeof Nakashima, Tiafoe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae5c…5df7backed Nakashima | 68c | 7,954$5,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,408.5 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tiafoe | 33c | 5,139$1,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,456.9 | 8,726 | 36.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L | -187.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Nakashima | 61c | 1,062$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1,020 | 49.9%509 W · 511 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Tiafoe | 32c | 937.5$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.5 | 1,672 | 50.1%837 W · 835 L | +30.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Tiafoe | 39c | 808.16$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.11 | 6,419 | 46.4%2,978 W · 3,441 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tiafoe | 39c | 600$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366 | 9,231 | 44.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L | -241.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Tiafoe | 50c | 594.04$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.02 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Nakashima | 50c | 594.04$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.02 | 2,137 | 36.8%787 W · 1,350 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7db…d23abacked Tiafoe | 45c | 441.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.1 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805f…54a4backed Tiafoe | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5a…96bcbacked Tiafoe | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.31 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Nakashima | 61c | 225.22$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.47 | 1,013 | 36.5%370 W · 643 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c4…c777backed Nakashima | 53c | 218.87$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tiafoe | 47c | 213.87$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.35 | 2,304 | 51.1%1,177 W · 1,127 L | +10.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x307e…a827backed Nakashima | 45c | 200.7$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.82 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Tiafoe | 18c | 177$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.14 | 4,882 | 38.8%1,892 W · 2,990 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Nakashima | 59c | 176.69$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Tiafoe | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 912 | 55.9%510 W · 402 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Tiafoe | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 941 | 49.5%466 W · 475 L | +17.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…c00fbacked Tiafoe | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…104cbacked Nakashima | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 296 | 52.4%155 W · 141 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tiafoe | 40c | 93.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 7,745 | 50.6%3,916 W · 3,829 L | +93.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Tiafoe | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 479 | 56.8%272 W · 207 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b57…bf08backed Nakashima | 27c | 93.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Tiafoe | 32c | 61.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tiafoe | 54c | 50.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 5,377 | 48.7%2,617 W · 2,760 L | +16.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa69…ff71backed Tiafoe | 72c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 83 | 67.5%56 W · 27 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Tiafoe | 25c | 42.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 742 | 46.4%344 W · 398 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Tiafoe | 32c | 32.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 397 | 47.9%190 W · 207 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Nakashima | 52c | 25.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,773 | 48.6%861 W · 912 L | +28.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Tiafoe | 60c | 25.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 1,802 | 58.9%1,062 W · 740 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Nakashima | 52c | 20.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 787 | 57.1%449 W · 338 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Nakashima | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…47eebacked Nakashima | 58c | 17.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Tiafoethis page
- Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Frances TiafoeFrances Tiafoe won
- Nakashima vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Nakashima vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Set 2 Winner: Nakashima vs TiafoeTiafoe won
- Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)Tiafoe won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.