Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a1d103cdeded9052430248d8fda5d7afd3468aefd83af3fa831b8c93bc699c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,442$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 37c | 695.97$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.22 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 619.86$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 530.51$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 25c | 512.47$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.2 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 447.35$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.81 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed No | 73c | 391.52$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.59 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 12c | 348.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.07 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 22c | 348.03$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 54c | 312.19$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.6 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 8c | 311.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.06 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 293.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.29 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 24c | 257.77$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.99 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 234.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.9 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 62c | 216.95$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 54c | 214.01$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.25 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 6c | 175.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.82 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 163$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 54c | 159.27$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.41 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 8c | 151.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.16 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4a…efa3backed Yes | 14c | 142.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed No | 70c | 132.15$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 10c | 116.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.48 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 9c | 115$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.71 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 68c | 109.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb11f…336fbacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 39c | 96.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 91.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 23c | 87.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 47c | 79.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 77c | 78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 75c | 56.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 40c | 54.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7561…6782backed No | 78c | 48.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 67c | 48.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1afe…9fe1backed Yes | 38c | 48.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 25c | 46.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…21d7backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 25c | 42.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 56c | 42.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 67c | 41.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 75c | 38.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…c495backed Yes | 60c | 38.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 59c | 37.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 77c | 30.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 70c | 28.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 66c | 27.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 42c | 24.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 70c | 21.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 74c | 13.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.