Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07105dc47484d3d142640857111c323e75173c94f8f91ebcf97cbbc5366b7a36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 1,859$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.73 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 37c | 1,433$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.01 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 26c | 1,191$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 1,135$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.24 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 47c | 1,099$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.16 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed No | 38c | 554.9$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.08 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 12c | 529.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 478.33$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 416.01$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 34c | 370.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.42 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 57c | 338.52$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.19 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 54c | 311.23$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.35 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 71c | 300.99$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.46 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 290$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 275.15$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.13 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 263.78$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 259.21$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed No | 49c | 256.76$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.78 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 47c | 248.24$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.18 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 28c | 220.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 58c | 212.46$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 69c | 209.35$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 25c | 208.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 30c | 194.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 49c | 188.84$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 51c | 183.75$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 49c | 181$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.82 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 46c | 161.17$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 159.52$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 32c | 157.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 139.23$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 138$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 28c | 137.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 36c | 136.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 22c | 129.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 31c | 125.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…f7edbacked No | 70c | 123.9$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 123.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 18c | 121.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 42c | 114.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 101.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 100.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb11f…336fbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 53c | 88.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…b5c9backed Yes | 29c | 82.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 25c | 75.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 27c | 74.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 72.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 72c | 70.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 39c | 69.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 71c | 69.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 26c | 67.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 74c | 67.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 63.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…21d7backed Yes | 51c | 63.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 41c | 62.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 43c | 62.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed Yes | 26c | 61.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 63c | 58.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 73c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 48c | 54.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 37c | 54.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked No | 44c | 52.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 47c | 52.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 70c | 51.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 58c | 50.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…8948backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…281bbacked Yes | 47c | 49.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 52c | 48.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes | 29c | 48.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 54c | 47.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 50c | 47.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 46.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 67c | 45.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 67c | 43.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 29c | 42.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 72c | 41.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 41.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 39.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 63c | 38.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 28c | 36.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked No | 71c | 34.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 30c | 33.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…8b79backed Yes | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 38c | 30.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 69c | 29.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 70c | 27.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 38c | 27.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.