Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5df62a57dd078ab29157c46a7924c52a04d49f037067fbd6f93459829dd7bd13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 42c | 1,308$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 22c | 1,063$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.77 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 729.16$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.12 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 501.25$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 500.91$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 472.12$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 426.98$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.95 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 58c | 381.01$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.3 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 361$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.79 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 11c | 330$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 21c | 288.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 40c | 249.69$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.27 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 47c | 230.85$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed Yes | 44c | 229.36$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 55c | 224.8$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.59 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 26c | 218.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 55c | 207$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.36 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 19c | 205.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 38c | 196.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 19c | 190.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 17c | 177.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 173$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 172.91$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 13c | 164.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 164.04$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 157.61$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 46c | 157.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 145.81$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 47c | 144.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 128.18$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes | 17c | 127.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 21c | 121.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 43c | 120$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 115.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 45c | 110.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 101.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 16c | 98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 97.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 85.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 20c | 80.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 20c | 79.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 74.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 71.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 22c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 45c | 62.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 59.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 57.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 52.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 60c | 50.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb11f…336fbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 80c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 46.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 42c | 45.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 26c | 43.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 42.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 55c | 41.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 53c | 38.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…04d4backed No | 62c | 38.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed No | 80c | 37.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…7e3ebacked Yes | 35c | 36.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…26aabacked No | 55c | 36.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 54c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 35c | 34.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 46c | 34.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…9613backed No | 54c | 32.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 35c | 31.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 42c | 28.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 57c | 27.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 26.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2309…5251backed Yes | 44c | 26.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 25.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd85d…3700backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 67c | 23.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6847…f1eabacked No | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 51c | 20.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 19.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.