Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc53bd2c14c52080c8762d7c15afc1de5908f790356bb7856d4f5673783ed4823
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 27c | 599.97$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.47 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 5c | 565.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 520.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 508.93$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 6c | 411.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 378.51$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.55 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 30c | 286.44$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.93 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 4c | 263.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 249.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 221.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 12c | 197.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 13c | 193.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 68c | 177.66$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 14c | 174.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 17c | 149.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 148.4$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 31c | 148.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…8186backed Yes | 32c | 140$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 11c | 136.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 16c | 130.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 21c | 81.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 13c | 77.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 23c | 76.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb5…5a72backed Yes | 25c | 71.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 19c | 62.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 19c | 59.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 57.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 76c | 56.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 53.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 49.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 46.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 43.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 75c | 40.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…7e3ebacked Yes | 28c | 36.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 27.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 73c | 23.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 65c | 18.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 69c | 15.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd836…8811backed No | 75c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.