UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a37f84b5cf992ee1ee2af9eaa064da392b3c225609764e20962b304db18d596
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Yes | 27c | 1,443$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.74 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 20c | 477.85$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4430…541fbacked No | 73c | 429.51$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.97 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Yes | 30c | 330$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed No | 78c | 321.98$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +40%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…6925backed No | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ca…c1d1backed No | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf72…647abacked No | 80c | 234.96$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 29c | 207.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa46…2b1abacked No | 73c | 173.16$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…c515backed No | 73c | 164.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed Yes | 28c | 141.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…e6c9backed No | 70c | 120.87$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 75c | 115$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…6735backed Yes | 30c | 72.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…d3eabacked Yes | 31c | 49.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed Yes | 29c | 40.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc48b…6c1ebacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…21fbbacked No | 80c | 26.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +7.4wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +20.8wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +361.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1760…c4edbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)Cortes-Acosta won
- Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Waldo Cortes-Acosta win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.