UFC · resolved market
Will Waldo Cortes-Acosta win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d0b960c43eab1ffac18ea00d88a25ec42def98e137385af8302a4bded9d9e25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 47c | 15,621$7,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,345.61 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed Yes | 53c | 14,372$7,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,754.87 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,696$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3523…a266backed Yes | 59c | 1,682$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.81 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 40c | 1,455$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.87 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 44c | 391.07$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.07 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…3385backed Yes | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…e6c9backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…5e35backed Yes | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14d9…407dbacked Yes | 56c | 111.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…650fbacked No | 46c | 106.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…1ed0backed Yes | 54c | 103.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb294…0e2bbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3665…0212backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…1046backed No | 36c | 55.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 44c | 45.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 49c | 44.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe069…a14abacked Yes | 74c | 26.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 47c | 21.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 50c | 20.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Waldo Cortes-Acosta win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)Cortes-Acosta won
- Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.