UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d375ef30020230d4000a41a39c396ff7345783dfcf7429fb1f009f2833ccf82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Over | 58c | 1,466$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.74 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 53c | 584.03$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.49 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa995…3d50backed Under | 46c | 566.64$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad9…6b63backed Under | 38c | 546$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.26 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Under | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 54c | 444$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.24 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Under | 44c | 324.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Under | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +40%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…53dabacked Under | 43c | 310.88$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.68 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad0…5d99backed Under | 13c | 256.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3806…bf57backed Over | 56c | 244.71$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e54…e1bdbacked Over | 57c | 180.88$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Over | 8c | 175.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.19 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Over | 55c | 149.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 43c | 143.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…df76backed Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0a…d221backed Under | 46c | 108.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…0019backed Under | 45c | 91.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…f3b8backed Under | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d306backed Under | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f22…3630backed Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 45c | 56.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…73d2backed Under | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Under | 45c | 44.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 41.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ab…3a19backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…da32backed Under | 45c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Over | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a0…be02backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…6b43backed Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c06…7812backed Over | 61c | 32.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 45c | 22.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)Cortes-Acosta won
- Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Waldo Cortes-Acosta win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.