Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Butler Bulldogs (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a491894ab77342ba1ec4376556dc68be935484b3567935ce4019258610fbf47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Butler Bulldogsof Butler Bulldogs, Marquette Golden Eagles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $302,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $302,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $302,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 50c | 252,128$126,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126,037.79 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Butler Bulldogs | 50c | 200,000$100,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100,000 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Butler Bulldogs | 51c | 36,254$18,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,764.5 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Marquette Golden Eagles | 49c | 30,000$14,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,700 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Butler Bulldogs | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,500 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Butler Bulldogs | 50c | 12,375$6,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,187.6 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Butler Bulldogs | 50c | 11,111$5,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,555.5 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Butler Bulldogs | 52c | 6,347$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,047.12 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Butler Bulldogs | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Marquette Golden Eagles | 49c | 3,913$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,912.81 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Butler Bulldogs | 52c | 2,885$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.62 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Butler Bulldogs | 52c | 2,885$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.62 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 48c | 1,666$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.68 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Marquette Golden Eagles | 48c | 1,585$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.62 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 48c | 1,300$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Marquette Golden Eagles | 48c | 1,131$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.96 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Butler Bulldogs | 52c | 1,014$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.52 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…c036backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Butler Bulldogs | 50c | 286.18$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.09 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +34.7wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 49c | 124$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…57ffbacked Marquette Golden Eagles | 49c | 108.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6a…72e3backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 49c | 100.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Marquette Golden Eagles | 45c | 99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Butler Bulldogs | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Butler Bulldogs | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Butler Bulldogs | 52c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d89…3e65backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Butler Bulldogs | 51c | 41.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe570…b4fabacked Butler Bulldogs | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Butler Bulldogs | 53c | 29.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 196 | 53.1%104 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Butler Bulldogs | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fb…e89bbacked Butler Bulldogs | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 169 | 52.7%89 W · 80 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 48c | 21.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb8…846ebacked Butler Bulldogs | 52c | 21.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Butler Bulldogs | 52c | 19.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Butler Bulldogs (-5.5)this page
- Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Butler BulldogsButler Bulldogs won
- Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Butler Bulldogs: O/U 159.5Over won
- Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Butler Bulldogs: O/U 160.5Over won
- Spread: Butler Bulldogs (-6.5)Butler Bulldogs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.