TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Butler Bulldogs (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Butler Bulldogsof Butler Bulldogs, Marquette Golden Eagles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$516,095
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$516,305

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $516,095 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Marquette Golden Eagles53c348,399$184,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184,649.5735945.1%162 W · 197 L-24.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Butler Bulldogs47c299,694$140,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158,837.769860.2%59 W · 39 L+9.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+23%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Butler Bulldogs48c116,982$55,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,000.2589645.9%411 W · 485 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Marquette Golden Eagles52c30,000$15,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,6004339.5%17 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Butler Bulldogs47c29,970$14,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,884.161,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Butler Bulldogs47c26,832$12,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,212.7421262.3%132 W · 80 L+34.7wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+37%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Marquette Golden Eagles52c21,771$11,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,320.7990645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Marquette Golden Eagles52c21,101$10,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,972.42045%9 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Marquette Golden Eagles52c17,083$8,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,883.161,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Marquette Golden Eagles53c13,638$7,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,228.1419950.3%100 W · 99 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Marquette Golden Eagles53c13,000$6,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,890933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Marquette Golden Eagles52c8,909$4,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,672.7842246.2%195 W · 227 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Butler Bulldogs48c8,333$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,333.3314654.1%79 W · 67 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Marquette Golden Eagles52c5,810$3,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,021.2735452.3%185 W · 169 L+17.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Butler Bulldogs48c3,125$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,62521248.1%102 W · 110 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Marquette Golden Eagles52c2,324$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.8312,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Butler Bulldogs47c1,702$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.0627755.2%153 W · 124 L+19.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Marquette Golden Eagles52c1,598$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.1711354.9%62 W · 51 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Marquette Golden Eagles52c1,496$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.865,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Marquette Golden Eagles52c1,200$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62482048.2%395 W · 425 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e82…7670backed Marquette Golden Eagles51c1,176$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60018650%93 W · 93 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Butler Bulldogs48c1,142$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.661,07447%505 W · 569 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Marquette Golden Eagles52c1,058$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55057248.1%275 W · 297 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Marquette Golden Eagles52c1,009$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.684,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08fe…aedfbacked Marquette Golden Eagles52c961.54$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004946.9%23 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Marquette Golden Eagles52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005743.9%25 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Marquette Golden Eagles52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020046.5%93 W · 107 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Butler Bulldogs48c536$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.724266.7%28 W · 14 L+7.3wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x68a9…e73abacked Butler Bulldogs47c530.99$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.4226749.1%131 W · 136 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Marquette Golden Eagles51c470.59$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24079448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb98e…8823backed Butler Bulldogs50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20014447.2%68 W · 76 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Marquette Golden Eagles51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20027045.2%122 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Marquette Golden Eagles52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016248.1%78 W · 84 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Marquette Golden Eagles52c319.75$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.2729442.9%126 W · 168 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Marquette Golden Eagles52c315.72$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.355,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6238…0523backed Butler Bulldogs49c306.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.1216755.7%93 W · 74 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Marquette Golden Eagles52c301.83$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.9555840.3%225 W · 333 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Butler Bulldogs49c273.59$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.535560%33 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x46b4…57ffbacked Marquette Golden Eagles54c249.11$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.793941%16 W · 23 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-21.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Marquette Golden Eagles50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Marquette Golden Eagles53c188.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9918844.7%84 W · 104 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked Marquette Golden Eagles53c141.51$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7521443.9%94 W · 120 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Marquette Golden Eagles52c131.11$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8997447.9%467 W · 507 L-2.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Butler Bulldogs48c125$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Butler Bulldogs48c125$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659551.6%49 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe77b…f10abacked Butler Bulldogs48c119.51$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.153366.7%22 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Butler Bulldogs48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Marquette Golden Eagles51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5114654.1%79 W · 67 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfed9…3cdebacked Marquette Golden Eagles53c84.91$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456556.9%37 W · 28 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d81…20c3backed Butler Bulldogs49c61.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.221668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+32.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf01…b14cbacked Marquette Golden Eagles53c58.1$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.794055%22 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Marquette Golden Eagles52c57.52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9121059.5%125 W · 85 L+17.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd236…a65ebacked Marquette Golden Eagles53c56.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017661.4%108 W · 68 L+17.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xabb2…5a2dbacked Marquette Golden Eagles52c50.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.164040%16 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Marquette Golden Eagles51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.534947.9%167 W · 182 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Marquette Golden Eagles52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261,16255.2%641 W · 521 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd730…1948backed Marquette Golden Eagles53c49.51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0119653.1%104 W · 92 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35fe…556abacked Butler Bulldogs48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.673655.6%20 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7832…a994backed Butler Bulldogs48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.84868.8%33 W · 15 L+8.6wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+34%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Marquette Golden Eagles51c39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8925436.6%93 W · 161 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Marquette Golden Eagles49c36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.641,48743%639 W · 848 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa506…d4ddbacked Butler Bulldogs48c31.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Marquette Golden Eagles48c27.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.249746.5%231 W · 266 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96d9…05d5backed Marquette Golden Eagles53c24.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310058%58 W · 42 L+10.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd5ed…d157backed Marquette Golden Eagles52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.