Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a51f2e6b8d8a12b85479f772c716f7614d70f56f6eb4bd556476ed78ac9270e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 38c | 666.2$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.66 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 7c | 596.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 5c | 562.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 9c | 535.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 492.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 309.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 285.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 5c | 256.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 25c | 230.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 9c | 206.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…8186backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc388…ed37backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 196.94$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 128.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 10c | 126.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 61c | 120$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 30c | 110.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 62c | 107.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 17c | 85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 39c | 84.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 22c | 83.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 13c | 81.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 61c | 74.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked No | 62c | 69.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…d148backed Yes | 19c | 57.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 55.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 26c | 47.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 71c | 46.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 33c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 64c | 39.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 66c | 37.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 35.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 62c | 33.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cb…5e45backed Yes | 63c | 30.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 25.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 62c | 16.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.