Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a0b69118c8341b404406591e69b1bfd97ad0846b0c4217f4da778906443502e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 1,491$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.07 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 19c | 1,360$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.43 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 22c | 1,190$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.66 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 76c | 1,000$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.15 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…8186backed No | 78c | 835.81$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.24 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 15c | 550.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.27 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 514.07$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.24 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 76c | 500$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.37 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 13c | 425.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 368.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 3c | 339.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 75c | 290.83$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 4c | 266.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 24c | 263.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 254.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 221.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 19c | 188.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 186.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…436abacked Yes | 24c | 169.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 15c | 166.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 27c | 156$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 153.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 25c | 139.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 18c | 112$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 14c | 110.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 109.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 22c | 106.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 25c | 102.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…202bbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 77c | 93.26$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 25c | 89.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 89.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 19c | 78.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 70.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 20c | 55.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 27c | 55.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 73c | 53.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 23c | 53.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 25c | 52.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 50.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…945ebacked Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 28c | 36.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 27.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 75c | 26.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 24.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 23.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…c3c9backed No | 74c | 22.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.