Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5301c487129fd9508dc2d82b92d7284c0854cae48865be9b5aa4f1b3dfe02ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 6c | 860.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 19c | 516.28$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.94 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 416.56$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 79c | 369.46$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.14 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 351.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.43 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 341.26$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.73 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 311.98$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 297.3$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 278.53$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 22c | 212.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.6 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 208.67$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 206.67$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 7c | 142.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed Yes | 30c | 139.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.14 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 134.81$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 31c | 134$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 20c | 127.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.73 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 122.67$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 65c | 113.11$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 19c | 100.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 53c | 98.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 62c | 80.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 20c | 80.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 79.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 31c | 75.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 18c | 75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 22c | 68.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…b02abacked Yes | 46c | 68.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 67.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 78c | 64.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 61.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 36c | 61.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 20c | 57.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 41c | 54.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 78c | 53.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 53.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…3dbfbacked Yes | 73c | 52.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 62c | 48.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0f…431cbacked Yes | 31c | 47.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 36c | 47.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…c3c9backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 38.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 79c | 29.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 29.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 28.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 77c | 26.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 55c | 25.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 72c | 23.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 19.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 59c | 18.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 78c | 17.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed No | 74c | 14.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.