Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5595f72603aead7bf307985f5546a9653702e9101110639cbd54474b5ef9909
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,857 | 25.4%472 W · 1,385 L | +133.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 18c | 346.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 1,613 | 23.9%385 W · 1,228 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 323.17$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.42 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 7c | 320.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 304 | 18.8%57 W · 247 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 294$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 271.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 270.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 20c | 226.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 183.83$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 27c | 182$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 632 | 43.2%273 W · 359 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 179.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 169.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 152.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1,876 | 18.6%348 W · 1,528 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 147.09$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 2,230 | 56.9%1,269 W · 961 L | +64.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…436abacked Yes | 31c | 129.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 119.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 87.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 72.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 71.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 68.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 32c | 62.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 426 | 45.1%192 W · 234 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 72c | 60.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 2,237 | 49.3%1,102 W · 1,135 L | -10.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 32c | 60.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 619 | 29.4%182 W · 437 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 59.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1,124 | 55.4%623 W · 501 L | -29.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 79c | 53.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 48.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2,184 | 74.2%1,621 W · 563 L | +23.5wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 76c | 43.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2013…7d68backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 30.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 2,193 | 57%1,249 W · 944 L | +68.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 73c | 27.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 24.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 73c | 23.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b1…dcc0backed No | 74c | 21.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 74c | 20.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 566 | 54.4%308 W · 258 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,919 | 62.8%1,205 W · 714 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 19.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 70c | 15.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 72c | 15.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 14.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.