Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Potapova (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a52ff48925f42eac2fd545177a41e694266fbd1183980c0617e5c1898c2f026
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kalinskayaof Potapova, Kalinskaya
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Potapova | 42c | 3,571$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4064…5f1ebacked Potapova | 41c | 3,399$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 280 | 39.3%110 W · 170 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Kalinskaya | 59c | 3,268$1,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.67 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Kalinskaya | 58c | 1,722$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.96 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…372cbacked Kalinskaya | 60c | 1,552$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Kalinskaya | 58c | 1,414$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.12 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Potapova | 40c | 1,195$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.12 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac1…3176backed Potapova | 43c | 1,052$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.23 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kalinskaya | 58c | 848.16$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.23 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Kalinskaya | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 721 | 32%231 W · 490 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Kalinskaya | 59c | 322.03$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.03 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Potapova | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Potapova | 41c | 243.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…9945backed Potapova | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 268 | 47.8%128 W · 140 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Potapova | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Kalinskaya | 60c | 233.33$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc88…87adbacked Potapova | 42c | 190.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked Kalinskaya | 60c | 117.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…1184backed Potapova | 43c | 113.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 81 | 18.5%15 W · 66 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Kalinskaya | 57c | 108$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Kalinskaya | 59c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 834 | 47.5%396 W · 438 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Kalinskaya | 58c | 94.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Kalinskaya | 59c | 78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Potapova | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Kalinskaya | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 158 | 37.3%59 W · 99 L | -19.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Potapova | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…fd49backed Kalinskaya | 59c | 32.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Kalinskaya | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecb…e058backed Potapova | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…a69fbacked Kalinskaya | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Kalinskaya | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…551abacked Kalinskaya | 61c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Kalinskaya | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Potapova (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5)this page
- Anastasia Potapova vs. Anna Kalinskaya: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Potapova vs. Kalinskaya: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Potapova vs. Kalinskaya: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna KalinskayaAnna Kalinskaya won
- Set 1 Winner: Potapova vs KalinskayaKalinskaya won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.