World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a5e365793761f9531f91b606dead7ed0d58d3ac751ad75ae29e20c911582580
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 53c | 725.33$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.6 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 417.29$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.76 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 324$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 54c | 257.01$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.25 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed No | 51c | 197.51$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 44c | 187.32$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 49c | 170.11$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.26 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 31c | 156.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 65c | 153.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 49c | 143.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 74c | 143$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…7521backed Yes | 71c | 141.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 32c | 128$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 102.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 35c | 94.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 94.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 68c | 89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 50c | 85.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 69.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 63.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 23c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 31c | 61.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 55c | 60.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 60.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 69c | 60.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 68c | 59.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 64c | 49.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 50c | 45.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 56c | 43.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 66c | 40.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 51c | 38.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 31c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 36.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 45c | 35.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 35c | 35.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 29.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 69c | 26.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 51c | 25.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 46c | 22.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 18.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 16.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.