Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a5f5317a05e2b00f2f36f8aa45d783183577673a80bf29647d03faf0e5ba62f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 907.4$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 80c | 375.85$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 27c | 351.7$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.63 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 22c | 232.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 26c | 182.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.89 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 12c | 166.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.15 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 53c | 152.62$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.69 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 28c | 151.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.54 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 149.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 140.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 33c | 137.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.68 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 76c | 132$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.25 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 130.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 114.74$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 97.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x885a…4e58backed Yes | 35c | 92.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 12c | 91.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 43c | 87.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed Yes | 14c | 85.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.79 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 66c | 74.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 58c | 72.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 54c | 67.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 61c | 67.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 19c | 66.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 46c | 65.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 33c | 65.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 59c | 56.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 48c | 54.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 67c | 52.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 52.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 54c | 49.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 22c | 49.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…730cbacked Yes | 29c | 49.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 55c | 34.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 72c | 30.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 65c | 30.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 78c | 23.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 64c | 23.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.