NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a714b5dd16241c875fa4e1d6ce3193c6c3a0067efc1e1de7e8a9f9fb0ee7be8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 55c | 5,750$3,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,595 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 4,608$2,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,073.41 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 46c | 3,844$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 1,155$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.96 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 73c | 1,041$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.27 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…699bbacked Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 26c | 961$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.14 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 41c | 713.54$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.28 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Over | 54c | 618.5$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.51 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 54c | 552$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.92 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 499.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.31 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 491.66$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.69 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 46c | 235.27$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.22 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 47c | 212.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 54c | 204.31$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.98 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Over | 55c | 163$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 63c | 145.85$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.27 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 46c | 122.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 38c | 121.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 60c | 101$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 40c | 85.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 62c | 82.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Over | 41c | 74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc56…b1b7backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 48c | 51.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 46c | 50.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…8279backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Under | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed Under | 46c | 37.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 48c | 37.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 45c | 28.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 25.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…b476backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…9a78backed Under | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fa…76cabacked Over | 53c | 23.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…e238backed Under | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 51c | 21.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83e…3ee7backed Over | 53c | 21.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433d…c50ebacked Over | 53c | 21.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Wings vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5this page
- Red Wings vs. FlyersRed Wings won
- Red Wings vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Red Wings vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Red Wings won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.