MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a8c83053fc10ed95cef6811f7353a767513508784559272bd6f099987e517b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,520 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 4,931$2,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,724.53 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 2,241$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.22 | 858 | 49.4%424 W · 434 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Chicago Cubs | 50c | 1,404$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.49 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 1,212$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.37 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Chicago Cubs | 54c | 1,055$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.55 | 491 | 46.4%228 W · 263 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 1,031$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.45 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 950.25$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.63 | 1,878 | 52.1%978 W · 900 L | +52.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Chicago Cubs | 56c | 929.66$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.99 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 904$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.66 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 900.05$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.03 | 1,361 | 50.8%691 W · 670 L | +13.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 766.71$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.03 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 714.2$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.95 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 568.2$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.46 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked San Francisco Giants | 44c | 567.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.08 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Chicago Cubs | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked San Francisco Giants | 38c | 480.72$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.25 | 1,738 | 50.4%876 W · 862 L | +57.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 434$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.7 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Francisco Giants | 47c | 422.16$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.21 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Chicago Cubs | 54c | 416.13$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.71 | 997 | 50.1%499 W · 498 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 307.5$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.55 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked San Francisco Giants | 43c | 240$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 211.85$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked San Francisco Giants | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked San Francisco Giants | 44c | 199.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 3,320 | 46.2%1,535 W · 1,785 L | +22.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 199.59$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 452 | 45.8%207 W · 245 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 197.6$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.77 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed San Francisco Giants | 47c | 194.92$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.85 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 159.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked San Francisco Giants | 43c | 141.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 116.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked San Francisco Giants | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,310 | 50.2%658 W · 652 L | +19.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked San Francisco Giants | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 94.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 492 | 46.1%227 W · 265 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed San Francisco Giants | 72c | 92.48$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Chicago Cubs | 57c | 78.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 77.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked San Francisco Giants | 44c | 73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 67.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,213 | 49.1%595 W · 618 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed San Francisco Giants | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 176 | 52.8%93 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 47.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed San Francisco Giants | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 44.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8353…01a8backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Chicago Cubs | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 35.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Chicago Cubs | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a2…23a0backed Chicago Cubs | 67c | 30.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7027…fababacked San Francisco Giants | 49c | 30.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked San Francisco Giants | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed San Francisco Giants | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…983fbacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 20.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5,240 | 56.8%2,974 W · 2,266 L | +130.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.